As ocean models move towards a closer coupling with observations through assimilation, it becomes essential that we know far more about the various parameters and functional forms than simply their mean and variance. Assimilation models require that we characterize their temporal and spatial variability in order to fill in the gaps in time and space. This is a daunting task. For example, we know decorrelation scales of phytoplankton biomass in only a few locations in the world ocean; little is known about the decorrelation scales of phytoplankton growth rates.
The Southern Ocean will be the site of major field campaigns for both JGOFS and GLOBEC. There is still great uncertainty about the regulation of primary productivity in the Southern Ocean; iron limitation, grazing, and light limitation have been invoked. Near the ice edge, processes are even more complicated. Existing coupled biological/physical models must contend with a wide range of processes, many of which (such as iron limitation) have not yet been incorporated into existing models.
Given the expanse of the Southern Ocean and its isolation, field programs are by necessity both limited and costly. The upcoming JGOFS GLOBEC Southern Ocean projects represent a unique opportunity to collect data on Southern Ocean biogeochemistry and ecological processes. Campaigns by other countries, including the United Kingdom, Australia, France, Japan, and South Africa, will also provide important data sets along with long-term studies such as LTER. It is unlikely we will be able to assemble these resources again. Given the predicted sensitivity of the Southern Ocean to climate change (and the resulting feedbacks), we must improve our ability to make predictions about the functioning of the Southern Ocean with only limited data sets in the future.
The focus of the workshop will be an assessment of our present state of knowledge from both observations and models. We will assess where are our greatest uncertainties lie and where small improvements in observations and models will result in large increases in understanding. We will estimate the time and space scales over which we can make useful predictions about the Southern Ocean. As part of this assessment, we will explore the needs of the observational community in terms of models. We will also seek to outline the type of measurement program that will lead to significantly improved models.
As a strawman question, I suggest the following to organize our thinking:
"To predict seasonal anomalies in the f-ratio on regional scales in response to changes in atmospheric forcing."
Tuesday, January 17 Cascade Locks C 7:30-8:30 Continental breakfast - fruit, pastries, juices, coffee, etc. 8:30-8:45 Welcome and focus of the workshop - M. Abbott 8:45-9:15 Status of JGOFS Southern Ocean project - R. Anderson 9:15-9:45 LTER results and GLOBEC plans - E. Hofmann 9:45-10:30 Physical processes in the Southern Ocean - J. Klinck 10:30-10:45 Break 10:45-11:30 Biological processes in the Southern Ocean - W. Smith 11:30-12:15 What can be done with data assimilation? - A. Bennett 12:15-1:30 Lunch 1:30-2:15 Examples of assimilation of biological data - E. Hofmann 2:15-3:00 Models of sea ice and ecological processes - K. Arrigo 3:00-3:15 Break 3:15-4:00 Coupled biological/physical models - P. Franks 4:00-4:45 New approaches in biological models - J. Moisan 4:45-5:30 Large-scale biological models - I. Totterdell
Wednesday, January 18 Cascade Locks B Cascade Locks D (breakout room) 7:30-8:30 Continental breakfast 8:30-9:00 Plenary session to discuss working groups 9:00-12:00 Working groups meet Group #1 Field measurements--T. Powell (chair) D. Nelson (rapporteur) What types of field measurements should be made during the upcoming JGOFS and GLOBEC programs to improve the quality of our models? Group #2 Models--K. Denman (chair) T. Cowles (rapporteur) What types of models need to be developed in order to exploit field measurements during JGOFS and beyond? 12:00-1:30 Lunch 1:30-3:00 Working groups meet 3:15-4:00 Group #1 reports to plenary 4:00-4:45 Group #2 reports to plenary 5:30-6:00 Reception
Thursday, January 19 Cascade Locks B Cascade Locks D (breakout room) 7:30-8:30 Continental breakfast 8:30-10:30 Writing session for both groups 10:30-11:30 Discussion of Group #1 report 11:30-12:30 Discussion of Group #2 report
Mark Abbott Oregon State University Bob Anderson LDEO Rob Armstrong Princeton Kevin Arrigo NASA/GSFC Andrew Bennett Oregon State University Tim Cowles Oregon State University Ken Denman IOS Canada Scott Doney NCAR Glenn Flierl MIT Peter Franks Scripps Institution of Oceanography David Glover WHOI Danny Grunbaum University of Washington Eileen Hofmann Old Dominion University John Klinck Old Dominion University Ricardo Letelier Oregon State University John Moisan Scripps Institution of Oceanography Dave Nelson Oregon State University Angelica Peña IOS Canada Tom Powell University of California, Berkeley Jim Richman Oregon State University Walker Smith University of Tennessee Ted Strub Oregon State University Ian Totterdell James Rennell Centre John Walsh University of South Florida Leonard Walstad University of Maryland